How Amazon’s Sell-In Forecast is changing the way 1P vendors navigate demand and supply

Most vendors rely on sell-out data—the perception of what consumers are buying. It’s useful, but it’s only half the story. What’s missing is sell-in data: what Amazon plans to order from you.

Without it, you’re guessing. You’re overproducing or understocking. You’re losing margin to chargebacks, scrambling to fulfill POs, and watching your Buy Box slip away.

Amazon has quietly rolled out a Sell-In Forecast feature via Vendor Central. It’s still in beta, available to selected vendors, and covers a limited number of ASINs. It is a predictive number that shows what Amazon intends to purchase from vendors over the next three months. It’s updated infrequently. We obersved daily but also weekly changes.

This is different from Sell-Out Forecasts, which reflect consumer demand. Sell-In Forecasts reveal Amazon’s internal supply planning—what it expects to order from you, not what customers are buying.

For 1P, this distinction is critical. Sell-out tells you what’s leaving the shelf. Sell-in tells you what’s coming into Amazon’s warehouse.

Therefore at AMVisor, we’ve integrated this feature into our platform, giving vendors a three-month projection of Amazon’s planned purchases—updated monthly and displayed alongside sell-out data.

Without visibility into Amazon’s purchasing plans, vendors are left guessing:

❓Should we ramp up production?

❓Will Amazon reorder next month?

❓Are we overstocked or understocked?

The Sell-In Forecast answers these questions by showing:

✅ Planned purchase volumes for each ASIN

✅ Trends over time, including seasonal shifts

✅ Discrepancies between sell-in and sell-out

My advice: Use Amazon’s Sell-In Forecast to align production with buying behavior, optimize inventory to prevent stockouts or excess, and reduce risk by anticipating demand shifts.

To turn forecasting into a strategic advantage, vendors should build habits around these five key practices:

• Three-Month Projection: The Sell-In Forecast provides a rolling three-month view of Amazon’s planned purchase orders. It’s refreshed monthly.
• Visual Comparison: In tools like AMVisor, vendors can see a blue line for Sell-In and a black line for Sell-Out, helping them spot discrepancies and trends.
• Beta Phase: The feature is still in beta at Amazon, meaning data availability may vary by ASIN and vendor. Some products may show only sell-in or sell-out data.

While Amazon’s Sell-In Forecast is a powerful tool for planning and alignment, brands should be aware of a few important points to ensure they interpret the data correctly and avoid missteps:

Pan-EU Listings: For vendors operating across Europe, forecasts may reflect aggregate demand across all EU marketplaces, rather than country-specific purchase plans. This means a forecasted volume might be distributed unevenly across regions, making local planning more complex (cross-country-shipments). Always cross-check with regional performance data to avoid overstocking in one market while understocking in another.

Volatility: Forecasts are dynamic and can fluctuate by ±20% week to week, especially for seasonal products, promotional SKUs, or items influenced by external trends. Vendors should treat the forecast as a directional guide—not a fixed commitment—and build in buffers when planning production or logistics.

No Guarantee: It’s important to understand that the Sell-In Forecast is not a promise. Amazon may adjust its purchase orders based on real-time demand, inventory levels, or internal strategy shifts. A forecasted order may be reduced, delayed, or even canceled. Vendors should use the forecast to anticipate trends, not to lock in expectations.

A smarter way forward. At AMVisor, we’ve seen firsthand how vendors transform their planning when they gain visibility into Amazon’s intent. It’s not just about data—it’s about confidence. About knowing when to scale, when to hold, and when to pivot.
The Sell-In Forecast is a quiet revolution in vendor strategy. And while it’s still in beta, the vendors who embrace it early are already seeing the benefits: fewer surprises, better margins, and smarter growth.